2015 Elections as Nigeria’s Biggest Democratic Test -Omojuwa

It has never happened. No elected Nigerian president has ever handed over to another president after being voted out. It has also never happened that a defeated political party would hand over to another political party victorious at the polls. The tension around Nigeria’s 2015 elections is real and palpable and most of it is down to the dawning reality that an incumbent president is about to be defeated at the polls. That is why Saturday, 28th of March 2015 is a historic day for Nigeria, not just because of the significance of it being an election day.

Nigeria’s first executive president, Alhaji Shehu Shagari won a controversial re-election but he didn’t even get a chance to complete his term after several acts of corruption and indiscipline cost him power, as the military again stepped in. Nigeria’s second executive president, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo was the first democratic president to have his mandate renewed who also got to serve out a two-term administration. When he handed over to the late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2007, it was the first time Nigeria would be making a civilian-to-civilian transition. It was historic but it was not such a tough thing to do after the country went past the third-term shenanigans of Chief Obasanjo. He chose a successor and orchestrated the elections to help Yar’Adua win. He handed over to an anointed fellow party member.
The 2015 elections offer Nigeria’s toughest test yet in its latest democratic journey. Not only is the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in danger of losing at the centre for the first time since the advent of this latest democratic journey in 1999, an incumbent president is in danger of being voted out. That explains the tension that the Goodluck Jonathan administration has been building around the polls, as if elections in Nigeria did not hold enough tension by default.
Postponing the elections, threats of another postponement, threats of the police starting a nation-wide strike on election day, the Oodua People’s Congress (OPC) fomenting  trouble in the southwest, the Niger Delta militants issuing statements of war, the Movement for the Actualisation of the Southern State of Biafra (MASSOB) suddenly interested in the outcome of a Nigerian election to the point of being ready to start a war were the incumbent to lose amongst other forms of organized madness are some of the things put in place by the incumbent president to not only scare the electorate but to also look to get a helping hand as the tidal power of democracy looks to sweep it out into oblivion in the coming days.
The five weeks since the postponement has seen the president suddenly wake up to his responsibilities, albeit cosmetically as he suddenly found a need to “compensate” the victims of the Immigration exam tragedies, send a minister to the parents of the 59 Buni Yadi boys who were murdered by Boko Haram and to suddenly align with the parents of the Chibok girls who have since asked to have their girls back against whatever efforts the government was pursuing outside of that singular purpose. Traditional rulers are reportedly several thousands of dollars richer as the president’s blessings are constantly being shared with everyone, including young hawks posing as youth leaders. Celebrities have not been left out of the largesse. Everyone who is powerful enough has either endured a visit from the president or received an invitation to meet with him.
This Goodluck Jonathan is not Father Christmas. He is doing all of these because he sees the hand of history on the clock. He is about to lose an election he never thought he could lose only months ago. In a materialistic society as ours, millions of dollars will sway many minds. The question is: has enough been shared to swing the tide the president’s way? Has the president visited Lagos – a major swing state – enough times to help him get the required votes to win on Saturday? Has the OPC done enough to scare Lagosians away from voting in order to reduce the votes accruable to General Muhammadu Buhari, President Jonathan’s main challenger, who is not only expected to win Lagos but indeed the whole election? There are only days left to get answers to these elections. As the US Secretary of State and the British Foreign Secretary wrote, the world is watching Nigeria.

Japheth Omojuwa is a Nigerian Blogger ,socio-economic and  political commentator as well as social media expert.He tweets at @omojuwa

Source:Metropole Magazine